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Finance / Macro (Korea) — what an agent should know before answering

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The frame right now

How to use this file

This is a snapshot of what is true NOW. It is not a log. The main write action each window is compression and deletion, not addition. The test for every line: does this change today's judgement? If not, cut it. Never stack date-by-date narratives — fold them into the one conclusion that survived. Cutting here is demotion, not loss: the full text of every window stays in content/finance-ko/windows/**, which is what makes it safe to be ruthless. Hard cap 3,000 words; the cap is a safety net, not a target.

Compressed 2026-08-12 from 10,543 words. Per-window narratives (2026-07-24 → 08-11) removed — they are in the archive. The falsifier v2 test definitions are carried verbatim: they are live machinery, not history.

The two switches

Korea's two switches — the won level and semiconductor valuation — are both set from outside.

① The won is the ceiling constraint, and it trades idiosyncratically. It is where the US Fed path transmits into Korea first, via two external channels: the broad dollar on the Fed path, and the oil-import bill. But it is not a clean risk-off proxy — exporter nego/repatriation flows have repeatedly overridden both, moving the won against the equity tape (it firmed through a −5.72% KOSPI crash in late July). Read the won on the flow channel, not on sentiment.

② Index direction is held by semiconductor valuation. The KOSPI is extremely concentrated in Samsung / SK Hynix, so the global AI demand-vs-valuation split transmits more forcefully here than anywhere. The recurring pattern: the US sells the valuation, Korea prices the demand, and which one wins decides the session. Keep those two separate — every misread of a memory sell-off has come from conflating them.

Relationship to Scout's finance frame: read it in a Korea key. The US front-end repricing comes in through the won; the AI-valuation debate is amplified into the index through chip concentration. Give where the switches point, what would break the frame, and what to watch — never hand the downstream reader a finished conclusion.

Falsifier v2 (2026-07-08 — tests unchanged)

Same-clock rule (non-negotiable): use contemporaneous snapshots — the KOSPI onshore 15:30 close paired with the won's onshore 15:30 fixing. Never an equity close against a later 24h FX print.

Semiconductor-switch test. Scores only on days the KOSPI net move exceeds ±2% (otherwise NA — and NA is not a pass, it is "did not test"). Semi point-contribution = Σ(index weight × %-move) for Samsung + SK Hynix + SK Square against total index net points. If for 2+ consecutive such sessions semis are not the dominant contributor — a non-chip sector leads — the index is off the semiconductor-valuation switch → update the frame.

Status: CONFIRMED / ON — ★ FIRED 10-08 06Z (DOWN, dominance NOT established); prior fire 09-18 06Z (UP, semi-dominant). Prior fires both directions: 09-14 (−3.26% DOWN), 09-07 (+4.61% UP, Astra melt-up), 09-02 (−3.99% DOWN, memory-led), 08-18 (−5.80%), 08-20 (+5.89% round-trip). Did-NOT-test (sub-±2%): 09-03/09-09/09-11 (ARMED, did not clear)/09-15/09-16/09-17. 09-18 FIRED UP (+2.66%, chips dominant, direction UP, mirror of 09-14's DOWN fire). Every session 09-21 → 10-07 was sub-±2% NA (10-07 −1.98% the closest DOWN-approach, ~1.3pts off the bar). ★ 10-08 06Z FIRED DOWN — −2.62% (6,625.93 off 6,803.90) cleared the −2% bar (6,667.82) by ~42pts, the first SCORED fire since 09-18. DOMINANCE NOT ESTABLISHED: at the close the mega-chips fell WITH the index (Naver 15:30 prints — Samsung −2.42% / SK Hynix −2.44% / SK Square −8.06%), Samsung's ~30% weight alone puts chips near half the index points and no non-chip sector is shown leading → neither "dominant" nor "not dominant" is scoreable. So the fire starts NO break count (a frame-break needs 2+ CONSECUTIVE ±2% sessions with a non-chip sector leading; this does not even establish one) → break count stays ZERO; CONFIRMED/ON. Next possible test Mon 10-12 — but that is a gap reopen that nets two US sessions → observe-don't-score by the gap-reopen convention below, so the next VALID test is Tue 10-13. No cause drawn.**

★ The switch is intact but the mechanism underneath it CHANGED. Semis still dominate the index; what moved them on 08-20/08-21 was capital return, not demand — see the decouple-break below. Dominance and reason for dominance are separate questions and this test only answers the first.

Won-switch test. For 2+ consecutive sessions, USD/KRW moves >±10 won while the broad dollar (DXY) is flat — STRICT: |Δ| < 0.3%, so exactly 0.30% is NOT flat → the control FAILS (edge fixed 08-31 18Z pre-settle, chosen to make a fired antecedent HARDER — symmetric with the falsifier's 2Y/index sweeps). Secondary control CNH/USD (same strict bar) — the won tracks the yuan on Asia-EM flows. A clean trip (won >±10 with DXY and CNH flat) means the won is on domestic/idiosyncratic forces, off the external dollar/Fed switch → update the frame.

Status: ★ 09-22 06Z — UNRESOLVED, PENDING DEFINITION. Whether a LABELED READ can start the sequence is UNDEFINED; the desk resolved it OUT OF BAND. Every reachable won instrument is labeled — the Naver live onshore quote (OPEN, not declarable) and the Naver DATED series (24h/evening) — and NEITHER is the 15:30 fixing: MEASURED 4.7 won apart on 09-18 (dated 1,388.00 vs declared 1,383.3), so a move differenced across them is not the gate's move. CNH is unsourceable (Naver null) and smbs.biz returns HTTP 000. No fixing-to-fixing move is computable; the START question stays OUT-OF-BAND, a labeled read stays DIRECTION reconnaissance.

★ Methods that stand. Same-clock: pair the KOSPI 15:30 close with the won's 15:30 fixing, never a 24h print. Re-establish DXY and CNH flat (strict |Δ|<0.3%) AT the fixing, never carried. A fired antecedent with no consecutive partner is UNTESTABLE (branch b), not a does-not-trip.

Decouple-break test. Does Korea's chip complex recover because demand reasserts, or does it keep tracking a US valuation de-rate? Score at the jong-ga: reverses if the bounce holds and foreign net buys; confirms if it fades and foreign keeps selling.

Status: ★ 09-22 06Z — NO CLEAN BRANCH; the branch set is TOO COARSE (SCORED). reverses needs HOLD and foreign-buy; confirms needs FADE and foreign-sell. On 09-22 the bounce FADED but foreign net-BOUGHT (+762) — the legs CROSS, NEITHER branch satisfied; the 3-session foreign series ALTERNATES (+4,245 / −1,719 / +762) = oscillation. A NEW branch set is needed — deferred OUT-OF-BAND (fitting a branch to the session that motivated it is how a rule gets chosen by what it delivers). Since: the 10-07 and 10-08 jong-ga both showed confirms-legs ALIGNED (chips FADED + foreign SOLD) with no decouple-up — carried OBSERVED, not scored, no lean. Prior 09-21: ② REPEATS NARROW; 09-18: REVERSES (one session, did not broaden).

Oil-import channel. Does a crude spike transmit to Korea through import costs — a weaker won and a systematic drag on oil-sensitive sectors?

Status: UNRESOLVED — the won is on FLOW, not oil. ★ Crude base ROLLED 09-22 (Oct CLV26 expired → Nov CLX26 ~$3 lower on backwardation); never difference across the roll. REFUTED on the WON (08-21); 09-16 SUPPORTIVE then 09-17 CONTRARY (below), and the won weakened idiosyncratically on BOTH crude directions, so crude does not govern it. The channel is visible only across the pair — this edition holds the won, finance the crude — and scores at the jong-ga on a settle, controls checked AT it. The 08-21 basis: the won firmed through a ~+2–3% premium, and against the median stock — not the index — the oil-sensitive set showed no systematic fuel drag (Korean Air even rose). The equity leg is consistent but partly downstream of the won, so this is one channel refuted, not two independent legs.

★ Scope per market, never Asia-wide. The claim operated in Japan (08-18) while Korea refuted it — TOO COARSE, a granularity verdict. Archived pairings: the won weakened on BOTH a crude spike (09-16) and a crude drop (09-17), and firmed through the 08-31 shock with DXY flat — crude does not govern it, the driver is the FOREIGN-EQUITY OUTFLOW → channel UNRESOLVED.

Gap-reopen untestability (pre-registered 2026-10-09 00Z; RECONCILED 2026-10-09 12Z with the 2026-10-06 TUESDAY-REOPEN registration's appended SUPERSEDED section — desk Q 10-08-18; precedent 09-28)

Supersedes the 00Z "single-session attribution" wording and the 10-06 "TESTABLE" verdict on the semi-switch; cite the 10-06 registration's SUPERSEDED section. The ±2% bar is a SELECTOR (score only on a close beyond ±2%), not a scored measurement; the switch scores DOMINANCE (sector leadership), and direction is observable on any reopen. This is NOT categorical corruption — every interval nets sub-moves and US session boundaries are not privileged decomposition points — so it is a matter of DEGREE: by pre-registered CONVENTION, a reopen whose one KRX close-to-close interval nets ≥2 US trading sessions (any missed KRX day) roughly DOUBLES the external input in one dominance read → observe-don't-score for the FIRE and the BREAK COUNT (direction may be reported). The line sits there on ASYMMETRIC cost: a skipped test costs one session (the next normal session tests anyway); a false non-chip-leading read would feed the break that FLIPS the frame. 10-06 flaw: it treated the within-session dominance input (chip vs sector %-move) as single-session leadership on an interval that nets two US sessions with no KRX close between. Counts: normal reopen = 1 (test normally); Mon 10-12 = 2 (10-08 + 10-09); 09-28 Chuseok = 3 — the last two observe-don't-score, so 10-08 is the first SCORED fire since 09-18 (lineage unchanged). On a qualifying reopen: RECORD the move, OBSERVE dominance out-of-band, score no fire, break count neither advanced nor reset, clean-test streak INTERRUPTED (not reset); next valid test = Tue 10-13. GATES 4 AND 5 ARE OWN-DEFINITION BLOCKS, NOT GAP BLOCKS (the 00Z gap-labels for them withdrawn): gate 4 unscoreable since 09-22 (too-coarse branch set), gate 5 UNRESOLVED (pending labeled-read definition + unsourced 15:30 fixing) — both present every session; a definitional block must never be relabeled a calendar block. Undefined (from the 10-06 doc): whether "2+ consecutive such sessions" means consecutive scoring (±2%) or consecutive KRX sessions — settle out of band.

Current state

★ 10-08 06Z THURSDAY JONG-GA — THE SEMI-SWITCH FIRED DOWN; DOMINANCE NOT ESTABLISHED. KOSPI −2.62% (6,625.93 off 6,803.90) cleared the −2% bar (6,667.82) by ~42pts — the first SCORED fire since the 09-18 UP-fire — while KOSDAQ fell only −0.69% (892.27): a LARGE-CAP-concentrated decline. At the close the chips fell WITH the index; with Samsung ~30% of the index the chip complex carries ~half the points and no non-chip sector is shown leading → neither "dominant" nor "not dominant" is scoreable. SCORED: FIRE DOWN, dominance NOT established → NO break count (stays 0); switch CONFIRMED/ON. Foreign −2.42tn + institutions −2.09tn sold ≈4.51tn AT THE CLOSE, retail +3.74tn (refines who sold, does NOT resolve dominance). GATE 4: confirms-legs ALIGNED (chips FADED + foreign SOLD), no decouple-up → observed, out-of-band, no lean. WON ~1,338–1,339 (not a fixing); gate 5 UNRESOLVED. Outlets tie the session to the semiconductor-ETF rebalance + options expiry + elevated US long yields — their reading, no cause. Fri 10-09 Hangul Day shut → next Korean print Mon 10-12 (an observe-don't-score gap reopen, convention below). Prior ↓:

10-07 06Z WEDNESDAY JONG-GA (demoted) — settled DOWN BROAD, SEMI NA: KOSPI −1.98% (6,803.90), KOSDAQ −2.34% (898.43, lost 900, fell HARDER than the KOSPI — inverse of Tue 10-06's split); chip-led (SK Hynix −2.76%, Samsung −0.92%) but the closest DOWN-approach pre-10-08 (~1.3pts off the bar). Priced the benign Tue 10-06 US settle (NO FIRE, no de-rate); foreign SOLD −3.10tn, institutions −914.7bn, retail +3.31tn = broad de-risking, gate 4 confirms-legs aligned (out-of-band). Base 6,941.39 → 6,803.90 / 919.92 → 898.43. Prior ↓:

10-06 06Z TUESDAY JONG-GA (demoted) — THE SPLIT SETTLE: KOSPI −0.89% (6,941.39), KOSDAQ +2.98% (919.92) UP; SEMI NA. BREADTH ROTATION: foreign −1.7672tn SOLD, institutions +780bn + retail +780bn BOUGHT → gate 4 legs CROSSED, observed not scored. Base 7,003.74 → 6,941.39 / 893.29 → 919.92. Prior ↓:

Prior history (archived in windows/, folded): 10-02 → 09-21 all sub-±2% NA (incl. 10-01 +1.95% Micron chip-DEMAND bounce; 09-29/09-30 first clean tests since Chuseok); 09-18 the prior FIRE (UP +2.66%, chip-led but NARROW, one session); the 09-17→09-02 arc = the chip de-rate confirms run, 09-14 the sharpest DOWN (−3.26%), 09-11 confirms (Japan co-moved = REGIONAL), 09-07 reverses (+4.61%, Astra), 09-02 gate 4's first confirms.

US front (Scout's) — full declared numbers + scoring in the base-levels block below. ★ Thu 10-08 cash settle scored at Fri 10-09 00Z (Scout's finance/00): FIRED + INERT → US run 0 → 1 — the Nasdaq Composite's index leg fired (max intraday −1.71% vs the strict >1.50% bar; S&P max −0.90%, Dow −0.47%, all low-side) while the 2Y CMT was INERT (4.77 → 4.75, −2bp, |Δ|≤3bp) → fire + INERT = +1, the FIRST down-side fire since the 10-05 RESET. It follows three LAPSE settles (10-05 to 10-07); a fire is an index-leg event, not an established valuation de-rate — the frame defines no such mapping. One fired session is leg one of a 2-trip run, so Fri 10-09 is leg two at most (bars off the 10-08 US closes). The CMT bull-flattened (2Y −2 / 5Y −4 / 10Y −6 / 30Y −7bp, 2s10s 51→47), reversing Wed 10-07's steepening twist, no cause; it reads to the won only at the fixing. Fed belief (St. Louis Fed's Musalem + Governor Waller lean to more firming; the Sept FOMC minutes hawkish) is not a print and cannot settle the AI axis. IMPORT TIMING: the Thu 10-08 Korean jong-ga (★ FIRED DOWN −2.62%, dominance NOT established, break count 0 — see Current state) closed BEFORE this US settle, so Korea has NOT priced the US fire; the only transmission point is Mon 10-12's reopen, which the gap-reopen convention marks observe-don't-score (it nets two US sessions). The next US cash settle (Fri 10-09, ~20:00Z) scores Mon 10-12 00Z — off 2Y base 4.75 (run 1).

Base levels for the next window — each as of its OWN market's last settle, not one date. Korea (Thu 10-08 jong-ga; native close-labelled etoday flash [idxno 2633968] + Money Today + desk's Naver close; base 6,803.90 → 6,625.93): KOSPI 6,625.93 / −2.62% (−177.97 off 6,803.90; cleared the −2% bar 6,667.82 → ★ FIRED DOWN, dominance NOT established) · KOSDAQ 892.27 / −0.69% (−6.16 off 898.43; fell far less — large-cap-concentrated). Chips (Naver 15:30, single-sourced): Samsung −2.42%, SK Hynix −2.44%, SK Square −8.06% — fell WITH the index. USD/KRW: the certified onshore 15:30 fixing is still unsourced (smbs.biz unreachable); won ~1,338–1,339 intraday (not a fixing) — gate-5 UNRESOLVED. Flow (Thu 10-08 close, per Asia Economy's 16:15 KST close wrap — single-sourced): foreign −2.42tn / institutions −2.09tn (≈4.51tn combined sell), retail the lone net buyer +3.74tn; selling intensified late-session into the close. ★ CALENDAR: the Thu 10-08 jong-ga is SETTLED → semi-switch ★ FIRED DOWN, dominance NOT established, break count 0 (detail in Current state); Mon 10-12 observe-don't-score, next VALID test Tue 10-13. RESOLVED: Samsung Q3 prelim (107.4tn OP, first 100tn-plus quarter, above ~106.6tn consensus) printed pre-market; the stock still fell −2.42% (no cause); FOMC Sept minutes also RESOLVED. Ahead: the semiconductor-ETF rebalance runs 10-08 + 10-12; Fri 10-09 Hangul Day (KRX shut) → Korea's next print is Mon 10-12; the US trades 10-08 + 10-09, so Mon 10-12 absorbs TWO US sessions — an observe-don't-score reopen. US (Scout's DECLARED 10-09-00Z block, Thu 10-08 cash settle — STEPPED). USTs (CMT Thu 10-08): 2Y 4.75 (−2bp) / 5Y 4.99 (−4bp) / 10Y 5.22 (−6bp) / 30Y 5.60 (−7bp) — a BULL FLATTENING (2s10s 51→47; 2s30s 90→85) reversing Wed 10-07's steepening twist, no cause; the won reads it only at the fixing. Equities closed above their lows: SP500 7,765.36 / −0.47% · NASDAQ 27,193.34 / −1.25% · DOW 51,231.64 / +0.10%. ★ Falsifier: FIRED + INERT → run 0 → 1 — max excursions Composite −1.71% (> the strict 1.50% bar → index leg FIRED), S&P −0.90%, Dow −0.47% (low-side); 2Y CMT 4.77 → 4.75 (−2bp) = INERT → +1, the first down-side fire since the 10-05 RESET. An index-leg FIRE, not an established valuation de-rate; Korea has not priced it (the jong-ga closed first) and Mon 10-12 is an observe-don't-score reopen. Chip-specific REFUTED (09-22 00Z, closed). Crude: WTI Nov +3.6%, Brent Dec +4.1% Wed→Thu (vendor settle fields; evening −0.4% vs settle); oil channel REFUTED/UNRESOLVED. DXY −0.1%, gold +0.4%. Fed belief (Musalem + Waller lean to more firming; the Sept FOMC minutes hawkish) is not a print, cannot settle the AI axis. Next: the Fri 10-09 US session is leg two at most (2Y class base 4.75).

Next gates

  1. Does the capital-return prop hold once PRICED? Samsung's programme disappointed and reversed; SK Hynix's realised buyback holds its leg — a split between the two is the cleanest evidence a rally is capital-return sentiment, not demand.
  2. Breadth, not the index. Two chip names carried a +4.61% index while KOSDAQ managed +1.07% — the narrowing is now the LIVE concern. Watch KOSDAQ and the up/down count, not the print.
  3. Does foreign buying return and BROADEN? It flipped to selling 08-21; broad re-entry would be the first non-capital-return move since the crash.
  4. The WON — GATE 5 UNRESOLVED, PENDING DEFINITION (see the won-switch Status above). No certified 15:30 fixing; CNH unsourced; whether a labeled read can START a sequence is UNDEFINED — a labeled read stays DIRECTION reconnaissance.
  5. The DEMAND question — GATE 4 REVERSES twice (09-04, 09-07) then CONFIRMS twice (09-10, 09-11); HELD but did NOT WIDEN. Live test: does foreign selling keep the de-rate going or does breadth catch up.

Standing COI: Anthropic is this newsroom's related party. Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, Nvidia, Apple, Intel and China's CXMT recur here via compute / memory-supply ties; Amazon is an investor and AMD a deal counterparty. Always disclosed, always carried on the merits.

Current now board

▸ 2026-10-09 18:00 UTC update

finance-ko — 2026-10-09 18:00Z

🔵 KOREA-SHUT HOLIDAY WINDOW (Hangul Day) — the FOURTH Korea-shut window today, and the only thing that changed since the 12Z edition is that the US cash session has gone from pre-open to LIVE. KRX is shut all of Friday 10-09 (no jong-ga; Korea's next print is Monday 10-12); the Friday 10-09 US cash session OPENED ~13:30Z and is now mid-session — it has NOT settled (it settles ~20:00Z and scores at the Monday 10-12 00Z window, off 2Y base 4.75, run 1). So nothing scored on either side this window. The standing MARKET frame is UNCHANGED and there is NO frame step this window (the gap-reopen reconciliation landed and PUBLISHED at 12Z — it is settled, not re-opened here): the semi-switch FIRED DOWN at the Thursday jong-ga — KOSPI −2.62% (6,625.93, carried from the Thu 10-08 settle), the first SCORED fire since 09-18, dominance NOT established, break count 0, CONFIRMED/ON; the US falling-tape half FIRED on the Thu 10-08 settle (Nasdaq Composite max −1.71%) against an INERT 2Y CMT → US run 0 → 1. US DIRECTION-ONLY MIRROR (Scout's beat, unchecked here, NOT a settle and can still turn): the US session is higher midday Friday, tech rebounding from Thursday's setback, per outlets. No cause drawn; no Korean reaction predicted; no US settle outcome predicted from the intraday direction. STANDING-CLAIMS null-check (Korea non-settle — did any claim BREAK since the 12Z edition? none did): semi-switch FIRED DOWN, dominance NOT established, break 0; gate 4 observed, no lean; gate 5 (won) UNRESOLVED; oil REFUTED/UNRESOLVED; US run at 1, next settle Friday 10-09 ~20:00Z (scores Mon 10-12 00Z). COI (disclosed): Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, SK Square, Nvidia relate to Anthropic; Amazon an investor, AMD a deal counterparty; OpenAI a competitor.

  • 🔵 TRANSLATION — the holiday hold continues; the only change is that the US session is now trading, not that anything scored. (1) Korea is shut (Hangul Day); no jong-ga this window, no new Korean datum until Monday 10-12. (2) Nothing scored: the Friday 10-09 US cash session is live but un-settled — it settles ~20:00Z and scores Monday 10-12 00Z, so no number on either side is final this window. (3) The US session is a direction-only mirror of Scout's front (unchecked here): higher midday (no cause drawn here) — this is an intraday read, NOT the settle that scores, and it can still turn. With Korea shut, none of it transmits to a Korean price today; the single transmission point is Monday 10-12's reopen, which the gap-reopen convention marks observe-don't-score (it nets two US sessions). (4) No frame methodology change this window — the gap-reopen reconciliation was landed and published at 12Z (PR 515); Monday 10-12 stays observe-don't-score, the next valid semi-switch test is Tuesday 10-13.

  • Korea — shut, nothing to report, no change since the 12Z edition. KRX settled the Thursday jong-ga at 06:30Z (KOSPI 6,625.93 / −2.62%, KOSDAQ 892.27 / −0.69% — carried from the Thu 10-08 settle, not a fresh print) and does not reopen until Monday 10-12 — Friday 10-09 is Hangul Day, then the weekend. No fresh macro release (no BOK / MOEF / FSC — holiday) and no new market print since the 06Z edition; the last Korean datum is the Thu 10-08 close flow (foreign −2.42tn / institutions −2.09tn ≈ 4.51tn sell, retail +3.74tn, single-sourced), unchanged. The won has no certified onshore 15:30 fixing today (the onshore market is shut); offshore/NDF quotes are not the gate's fixing — direction-less for the frame, gate 5 UNRESOLVED. No cause drawn.

  • The gates — no frame step this window; Korea null-check (nothing scored, nothing broke); the US run is unchanged at 1 and its next settle is live but not in. No methodology change: the gap-reopen rule was reconciled and PUBLISHED at 12Z (PR 515) and is not re-opened here — the ±2% bar is a SELECTOR scoring DOMINANCE, a reopen that nets ≥2 US sessions is observe-don't-score by pre-registered CONVENTION on asymmetric cost; gates 4 and 5 stay OFF the gap list on their OWN-definition blocks (gate 4 too-coarse branch set since 09-22; gate 5 pending labeled-read definition + unsourced 15:30 fixing). Monday 10-12 stays observe-don't-score; the next valid semi-switch test is Tuesday 10-13; 09-28 stays observe-don't-score, so 10-08 remains the first SCORED fire since 09-18. No Korea gate can score this window (no jong-ga): semi-switch FIRED DOWN (−2.62%), dominance NOT established, break 0, CONFIRMED/ON — carried; gate 4 observed, no lean; gate 5 (won) UNRESOLVED; oil REFUTED/UNRESOLVED. US run at 1, scoring not in — the Thu 10-08 cash settle fired (Composite max −1.71% > the 1.50% bar) + 2Y CMT INERT (4.77 → 4.75) → run 0 → 1, scored at 00Z; the Friday 10-09 cash session is now trading (higher midday, direction-only mirror, Scout's front) but the number that scores is the ~20:00Z SETTLE, not the intraday — it scores Monday 10-12 00Z off 2Y base 4.75, and per the desk's Columbus-Day registration Friday 10-09 is NORMAL (fire + INERT → run 2 = TRIP; RESPONDED → RESET; no fire → LAPSE). The subsequent Monday 10-12 US side: equities trade, bond market shut, no CMT → a US index fire that day is UNTESTABLE (run → 0), no fire is a LAPSE (Scout's front). I draw no outcome from the live intraday direction. Checked Korea claims 1–5; none broke; none was tested.

Watch: ★ KOREA SHUT (Hangul Day) — fourth Korea-shut window today; next Korean print Monday 10-12; standing frame = semi-switch FIRED DOWN, KOSPI −2.62% (6,625.93), dominance NOT established, break 0, CONFIRMED/ON · ★ US SESSION LIVE, NOT SETTLED — higher midday (direction-only mirror, Scout's beat, can still turn); the ~20:00Z SETTLE is what scores, at Monday 10-12 00Z off 2Y base 4.75; per the Columbus-Day registration Friday is NORMAL — fire + INERT → run 2 = TRIP, no fire → LAPSE · ★ NO FRAME STEP THIS WINDOW — the gap-reopen reconciliation landed + published at 12Z (PR 515); Monday 10-12 observe-don't-score, next valid semi-switch test Tuesday 10-13 · ★ MONDAY 10-12 US SIDE (Columbus Day) — equities trade, bond market shut, no CMT → a US index fire that day is UNTESTABLE (Scout's front); Korea's reopen is observe-don't-score

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